Thanksgiving is still more than a month away, but the Farmers’ Almanac has updated its long-range weather forecast for the holiday week, and some parts of the country could see an early taste of winter.
The updated forecast covers Monday, November 23, through Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, November 26. While the Farmers’ Almanac does not expect a major coast-to-coast storm, it is calling for colder, more winterlike conditions across parts of the Midwest, with scattered snow showers or flurries possible.
The forecast also calls for light snow in parts of the northern Plains and Rockies, while other parts of the country could see much milder conditions.
Thanksgiving Weather Forecast 2026: Where Could It Snow?
The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwest are among the regions with the greatest potential for wintry weather during Thanksgiving week.
The Farmers’ Almanac expects colder conditions across Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Kentucky, with scattered snow showers or flurries possible. While the forecast does not call for a hunker-down-and-stock-up-on-groceries snowstorm, some brief travel slowdowns could occur if snow showers develop.
Snow is also possible farther west and north.
The Farmers’ Almanac expects cold late-November weather across Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana, with light snow possible in the northern Plains and higher elevations of the Rockies.
Parts of the Southwest could also see some wintry weather. The forecast calls for cooler conditions across California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, with light mountain snow possible in parts of the interior West.
In the Northeast, the overall pattern is expected to be cool but mainly fair. Northern and higher-elevation areas could see a few flurries, although the broader pattern looks favorable for holiday travel.
Great Lakes and Midwest Could See Snow Showers
The Great Lakes and Midwest currently stand out as one of the main areas to watch during Thanksgiving week.
The Farmers’ Almanac describes the region as colder and more winterlike, with scattered snow showers or flurries possible. The states specifically included in this forecast zone are Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
There is an important caveat: The Farmers’ Almanac is not forecasting a major snowstorm for the region. Instead, it says brief travel slowdowns could develop where snow showers pop up.
That could still be significant during Thanksgiving week, when millions of Americans are traveling by car and plane, already impacting traffic negatively.
Northern Plains and Rockies Could See Light Snow
Farther west, the Farmers’ Almanac expects cold late-November weather across the northern Plains and Rockies.
Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana are included in the North Central forecast zone. Some areas, particularly the northern Plains and higher elevations of the Rockies, could see light snow.
The Southwest could also see some snow at higher elevations. The Farmers’ Almanac forecasts cooler conditions across California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, with light mountain snow possible in parts of the interior West.
Which States Could Have Mild Thanksgiving Weather?
Not everyone should expect a cold Thanksgiving.
The Southeast is currently shaping up to be one of the more favorable regions for holiday travel. The Farmers’ Almanac expects Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida to see generally mild and pleasant conditions, with a good chance of dry weather and sunshine.
The forecast also calls for mostly seasonable conditions across Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico.
The Northeast is expected to be cool but mainly fair, while the Pacific Northwest could see periods of rain and wet roads across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
Farmers’ Almanac vs. NOAA Thanksgiving Weather Forecast
The Farmers’ Almanac’s Thanksgiving forecast offers a more specific look at the holiday week, while NOAA’s latest outlook covers the entire month of November.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently favors above-normal temperatures across much of the northern two-thirds of the U.S., including the Great Lakes, Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley. NOAA says the probabilities for warmer-than-normal temperatures are particularly high across the Great Lakes and northern tier.
That differs from the Farmers’ Almanac’s Thanksgiving-week outlook, which calls for colder, more winterlike conditions across the Great Lakes and cold late-November weather in the northern Plains and Rockies.
The precipitation outlooks also differ in an interesting way. NOAA favors below-normal precipitation across parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Plains, while the Farmers’ Almanac specifically calls for scattered snow showers or flurries across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest during Thanksgiving week.
The forecasts aren’t necessarily contradictory. NOAA’s outlook is a monthly probability forecast for November, while the Farmers’ Almanac is making a specific prediction for November 23 through November 26. NOAA also notes that short-term fluctuations can occur and that November is a transition month as the effects of El Niño strengthen heading into winter.
NOAA identifies El Niño as the dominant climate driver for November, with the agency expecting its influence to strengthen through the winter months.
NOAA’s next updated monthly outlook for November is scheduled for October 31.
What the Thanksgiving Forecast Means for Holiday Travel
For travelers, the biggest areas to watch in the current Farmers’ Almanac forecast are the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, northern Plains, and Rockies.
Even relatively minor snow showers can create problems during one of the busiest travel periods of the year, particularly if they coincide with heavy traffic or busy airport schedules.
The Pacific Northwest could also see wet roads, while the Northeast is expected to remain cool but generally manageable. The Southeast currently looks like one of the better bets for travelers hoping for mild, dry conditions.
Still, neither forecast should be treated as a day-by-day Thanksgiving prediction this far in advance. More detailed forecasts will become available as Thanksgiving approaches.
For now, the Farmers’ Almanac is not predicting a major nationwide Thanksgiving storm. Instead, its updated outlook points to a fairly typical late-November pattern, with the best chance for wintry conditions concentrated across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, northern Plains, and Rockies.
Thanksgiving Day 2026 falls on Thursday, November 26.
