White Christmas Odds for Every US State, and Why a Strong El Niño Could Shake Things Up This Year

The odds of waking up to snow on Christmas morning depend a lot on where you live.

In Anchorage, there has been at least an inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 about 94% of the time. In Miami, New Orleans and Houston, the odds are zero. Most of the country falls somewhere in between, and the main weather station tops 50% in only six states, according to NOAA’s climate normals.

How the Odds Are Calculated

The numbers come from NOAA’s 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, which show how often a weather station had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on a given day. NOAA uses the same bar for a white Christmas: snow on the ground, not just snow in the air.

This list uses one station per state, usually the main airport of the state’s biggest or best-known city. Some of those stations don’t record snow depth, so the closest NOAA station that does was used instead. Those are marked in the table.

These are historical odds, not a forecast. NOAA’s Climate.gov describes them as “useful as a guide only,” since the weather in any given year can go either way.

Why This Year Could Be Different

A strong El Niño is underway, according to the Oct. 15 outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The agency gives it an 80% chance of staying at least strong through March.

Its winter outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures for the western third of the Lower 48, the northern tier of the country and much of the East. It leans drier for the northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes, and wetter for California, the Southwest, the central and southern Plains, the Southeast and the East Coast.

The outlook covers the whole season, not Christmas Day. Still, warmer and drier conditions in the North would make snow on the ground less likely there.

The Best Odds

Anchorage, Alaska, tops the list at 93.7%. Fargo, North Dakota, is second at 77.6%, and Minneapolis is third at 73.6%. Fargo is also the coldest spot on the list, with a normal Christmas high of 20.7 degrees and a low of 4.2.

Concord, New Hampshire (62.6%), Burlington, Vermont (62.3%), and Sioux Falls, South Dakota (58.7%), are the other three above 50%. Salt Lake City and Portland, Maine, are just under, both at about 48%.

The Lowest Odds

Several big Northern cities come in lower than you might expect. Chicago’s O’Hare Airport is at 33.5%, Detroit at 34.7% and New York’s Central Park at 13.2%. Philadelphia is at 9.3%.

In the South, the odds are close to zero. Atlanta and Charlotte are both at 1.4%, and Miami, New Orleans and Houston are at 0%.

Arizona and California are split. Phoenix and Los Angeles don’t record snow depth at all, so their rows use mountain stations: Flagstaff, Arizona, at 60% and Tahoe City, California, at 83.4%.

White Christmas Odds by State

*Fargo’s figure is based on 16 years of snow-depth data.
**The main station doesn’t record snow depth, so a nearby NOAA station was used. Blue Hill Observatory sits on a hill about 10 miles south of Boston, so the odds in the city itself are probably lower.

What Comes Next

The Climate Prediction Center usually releases its monthly outlook on the third Thursday of the month, so the official December outlook should come out Nov. 19. Forecasts for Christmas Day itself only become reliable about a week ahead.