Automotive World’s monthly global LV sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region. By Jonathan Storey
Demand in the top 20 markets fell by 3.6% in September, the ninth successive monthly decline, again led by China which dropped more than 500,000 units, marking its 12th consecutive decline. Excluding China demand in September rose by 7.0%, with rises in 17 markets and falls in just two: South Korea and Turkey.
Please note that Automotive World’s data for China now reflects passenger cars only, not light vehicles (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles). The historical data has been adjusted and is therefore not comparable to previous updates.
LV sales forecast, updated October 2026
LV sales (000s) |
2024 |
2025 |
2026(f) |
Change -v- prior year (%) |
Change -v- prior status (pts) |
Notes |
China (PC only) |
22,481.1 |
22,810.6 |
18,100.0 |
(20.7)% |
N/A |
Multiple provinces/regions launched fresh round of purchase incentives mid-to-late Sept. More than 30 brands matched these with discounts. However, October sales heading for 27-30% drop. |
N. America (US & Canada) |
17,824.9 |
18,298.5 |
17,950.0 |
(1.9)% |
0.3 |
Headwinds: Higher prices, record autumn fuel costs, interest rates, subprime finance stress at 30-year high, EV slump post tax credit. Tailwinds: Stocks near record highs, robust fleet demand, higher incentives, record hybrid share, ageing parc, Canada recovering. |
EU+EFTA+UK |
14,962.6 |
15,094.7 |
15,868.0 |
5.1% |
1.0 |
2026 on track for a fourth year of successive increase. Strong BEV/PHEV growth, driven by high fuel prices, new incentives in Germany, France and Italy, as well as cheaper Chinese models. Headwinds: ECB tightening, energy costs. |
S. America |
5,694.0 |
5,981.0 |
6,300.0 |
5.3% |
0.4 |
|
India |
4,523.3 |
4,959.8 |
5,743.0 |
15.8% |
4.7 |
GST-cut boost fades from October; higher fuel prices, rising interest rates and weakening consumer confidence point to a Q4 decline. |
Japan |
4,270.9 |
4,420.0 |
4,495.0 |
1.7% |
0.0 |
Growth slows slightly in Q4 from the 2.2% YTD pace; consumer confidence recovery stalled in September and still well below February’s peak. |
RoW |
14,201.0 |
14,296.0 |
14,260.0 |
(0.3)% |
(0.2) |
|
Total |
83,957.9 |
85,860.6 |
82,716.0 |
(3.7)% |
n/a |
|
Change |
3.5% |
2.3% |
(3.7)% |
LV demand, top 20 markets, monthly change (%)
Excluding China, demand is up 4.4% for the year to date, against a 3.6% fall including it. In unit terms, the strongest performer in September was India, continuing the pattern of strong demand since favourable GST changes boosted car sales from October 2025. A slowdown is expected in the final quarter of 2026, since the year-ago figures will be tougher to beat and there are several indicators that future car demand is weaker.
LV sales, top 20 markets: September & YTD 2026 -v- yr ago
Country |
Month v month (000s) |
Change |
YTD v YTD (000s) |
Change |
||||
Sep-26 |
Sep-25 |
Units (000s) |
% |
2026 |
2025 |
Units (000s) |
% |
|
China (PC only) |
1,702.0 |
2,239.0 |
(537.0) |
(24.0) |
13,418.0 |
16,980.0 |
(3,562.0) |
(21.0) |
USA |
1,326.3 |
1,256.4 |
70.0 |
5.6 |
11,976.6 |
12,204.8 |
(228.2) |
(1.9) |
India |
457.6 |
378.5 |
79.1 |
20.9 |
3,957.8 |
3,241.8 |
716.0 |
22.1 |
Japan |
418.3 |
414.2 |
4.2 |
1.0 |
3,429.5 |
3,356.8 |
72.7 |
2.2 |
Germany |
279.3 |
258.6 |
20.7 |
8.0 |
2,410.5 |
2,307.1 |
103.4 |
4.5 |
Top five total |
4,183.6 |
4,546.6 |
(363.0) |
(8.0) |
35,192.4 |
38,090.5 |
(2,898.1) |
(7.6) |
Brazil |
268.8 |
231.5 |
37.3 |
16.1 |
2,158.9 |
1,809.2 |
349.7 |
19.3 |
UK |
400.2 |
360.3 |
39.9 |
11.1 |
1,990.6 |
1,819.4 |
171.2 |
9.4 |
Canada |
183.7 |
170.5 |
13.3 |
7.8 |
1,486.6 |
1,452.7 |
33.9 |
2.3 |
Italy |
168.0 |
163.0 |
5.0 |
3.1 |
1,459.0 |
1,471.0 |
(12.0) |
(0.8) |
France |
155.1 |
143.7 |
11.4 |
7.9 |
1,403.8 |
1,309.2 |
94.7 |
7.2 |
S. Korea |
135.0 |
157.3 |
(22.3) |
(14.2) |
1,228.8 |
1,258.2 |
(29.4) |
(2.3) |
Mexico |
129.3 |
119.8 |
9.5 |
8.0 |
1,144.1 |
1,089.2 |
55.0 |
5.0 |
Russia |
109.1 |
100.3 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
1,058.9 |
992.9 |
66.0 |
6.6 |
Spain |
122.8 |
122.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
967.8 |
895.8 |
72.0 |
8.0 |
Australia |
105.4 |
103.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
926.7 |
906.0 |
20.7 |
2.3 |
Turkey |
83.5 |
110.3 |
(26.8) |
(24.3) |
803.5 |
927.6 |
(124.2) |
(13.4) |
Malaysia |
81.2 |
63.7 |
17.5 |
27.5 |
676.2 |
585.9 |
90.3 |
15.4 |
Indonesia |
74.3 |
61.9 |
12.4 |
20.0 |
640.9 |
609.3 |
31.6 |
5.2 |
Poland |
60.1 |
48.2 |
11.9 |
24.7 |
552.6 |
464.8 |
87.8 |
18.9 |
Thailand |
62.5 |
55.6 |
6.9 |
12.5 |
525.9 |
477.1 |
48.9 |
10.2 |
Next 15 total |
2,138.9 |
2,011.8 |
127.2 |
6.3 |
17,024.5 |
16,068.2 |
956.3 |
6.0 |
Top 20 total |
6,322.5 |
6,558.3 |
(235.8) |
(3.6) |
52,216.9 |
54,158.7 |
(1,941.8) |
(3.6) |
In October, the IMF increased its 2026 global GDP forecast to 3.1%, up just slightly from its July forecast of 3.0%. The 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 3.4%. The key themes of this and other forecasts are the now-familiar ones of warfare in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade tensions, higher inflation and fiscal sustainability, offset by surging AI investments.
