This weekend is shaping up to be a pretty interesting one. A few weeks ago, it seemed like a no-brainer that DC’s Clayface would be able to top the weekend, but an unexpected juggernaut has arrived in the form of Nathan Fielder, whose A24 documentary about Elizabeth Holmes, You Can See Everything, has exploded in popularity. It had the second-biggest opening ever for a documentary last weekend, earning $15 million on only 800 screens. It’s going to triple its screen count this weekend, and with it capturing the zeitgeist, it feels likely to post a strong challenge to Clayface.
Here in Montreal, screenings of the film have been sold out all week, and the same seems to be true in many major cities all over North America. Will that be enough to make it number one? I think it will be very close. $20 million is within range, but that’s also about the same as what Clayface will make.
Will a $20 million opening be big enough for DC to consider Clayface a success? In some ways, yes. Boasting an R rating and a budget that’s only a fraction of what Superman and even Supergirl cost, it doesn’t need to set any records to turn a profit for the studio, especially if it performs decently overseas. WB and DC have been focusing on the horror aspect rather than the superhero aspect, which is wise, as it definitely feels like a horror flick more than anything else, and horror always performs well worldwide. Yet, mixed reviews and perhaps a little DC fatigue are going to keep it from really having a big opening, with the $25 million-plus expected a few weeks ago unlikely now.
Last week’s champ, Street Fighter, is looking at a heavy decline of at least 60%, with it on track for under $10 million. Video game movies are always front-loaded, with even Resident Evil having a 62% decline in week two. The CinemaScore was a pretty mediocre B-minus, so don’t expect it to reverse this trend. Klara and the Sun, which is getting bad reviews, and Wildwood should round out the top five with about $8 million and $6 million, respectively.
Here are our predictions:
- Clayface: $20 million
- You Can See Everything: $18 million
- Street Fighter: $10 million
- Klara and the Sun: $8 million
- Wildwood: $6 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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