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4 min read
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.07 billion over three consecutive sessions through Wednesday. Bitcoin dropped 2.4% anyway.
Why It Matters
The divergence between strong ETF inflows and a falling Bitcoin price suggests that persistent institutional demand is not always enough to offset broader market pressure in the near term. It also highlights that flow data can be an important support signal without guaranteeing immediate price upside, especially when trading sentiment or liquidity conditions are working against the market.
The disconnect between fund flows and price action was pretty much the story of the week. Wednesday alone brought in $524.8 million across the spot Bitcoin funds — the third straight positive session after Monday’s $526.7 million intake. That buying streak reversed the funds’ monthly balance, pushing October into net positive territory at around $460 million. But none of it stopped Bitcoin from sliding to roughly $81,470 on Thursday. The price had touched nearly $85,000 the day before, which made the drop feel sharper than the raw percentage suggests. Over seven days, Bitcoin was still up about 2%, so the weekly picture wasn’t a disaster — just a rough 24 hours capping what had otherwise been a decent rebound.
The gap between money flowing in and price going up isn’t always clean.
BlackRock’s IBIT Dominated Monday’s Surge
Monday’s $526.7 million didn’t get spread around. All of it went to IBIT, BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund. That’s the whole session’s inflow, concentrated in a single product. Wednesday’s $524.8 million was distributed more broadly across the funds, but Monday’s number stood out as probably the biggest single-session result in weeks.
Zooming out, the cumulative picture for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is substantial. Since IBIT launched, net inflows across all the funds have reached $58.4 billion. Total net assets now sit at $100.8 billion. Those long-term numbers put the recent volatility in context — October’s rough start, with nearly $615 million in outflows through the previous Friday and about $910 million in withdrawals over the two preceding weeks, looks like a bump rather than a structural shift when measured against the full history. The monthly balance has now recovered to roughly $460 million in net inflows, though that recovery came without a matching price rally.
JP Morgan Asset Management weighed in this week with its first long-term Bitcoin forecasts. The firm projected a compound annual return of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years. It also cited volatility of 55%, which is a number worth sitting with — that’s a wide range of possible outcomes baked into a single forecast. No further detail on the methodology was provided in the source material.
Prediction Markets Lean Cautious on October Price Targets
Traders on Myriad weren’t exactly bullish heading into the final stretch of October. They put the probability of Bitcoin climbing above $87,500 before month-end at just 20%. Getting to $90,000? Nine percent. On the downside, they assigned a 35% chance of a drop toward $77,500 — not surprising given that Bitcoin had briefly dipped below $80,000 the previous week.
These are prediction-market probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. But they describe where traders’ money actually sits, which is probably more useful than analyst price targets. The cautious lean makes sense given the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, scheduled for October 27 and 28. Persistent inflation has kept another rate hike on the table, and risk assets — crypto included — tend to get jittery when that’s the backdrop. Unclear yet how much of Thursday’s decline was Fed-related versus simple profit-taking after the run to $85,000.
Ethereum Funds End Losing Streak but Stay Deep in the Red
Ethereum ETFs had five straight sessions of outflows before Wednesday broke the streak. The damage during that run totaled about $389 million. Wednesday’s positive session brought in $14.9 million — helpful, but not close to erasing the month’s losses. Ethereum ETFs are still down roughly $1.07 billion for October.
The longer-term total tells a different story. Since launch, Ethereum ETFs have accumulated $12.8 billion in net inflows. So the monthly pain is real, but it’s sitting on top of a much larger positive base. Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, have already clawed back into positive monthly territory. Ethereum hasn’t.
Ethereum’s price fell 2.6% on Thursday to around $2,393. Myriad users put the probability of ETH reaching $3,000 before falling to $1,500 at 61.3%. Make of that what you will.
The broader crypto market wasn’t spared. Total market capitalization dropped 2.9% to $2.84 trillion. Zcash fell 5.6% on the day, though it was still nearly 14% higher for the week. And Monday’s $526.7 million IBIT session remained the strongest single-day intake for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since September 22.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attract over the three sessions through Wednesday?
They pulled in about $1.07 billion, including $526.7 million on Monday and $524.8 million on Wednesday, lifting October’s net balance to roughly $460 million.
What did JP Morgan Asset Management project for Bitcoin returns?
JP Morgan Asset Management issued its first long-term Bitcoin forecasts this week, projecting a compound annual return of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years, alongside a volatility estimate of 55%.
