When Doomsday Predictions Steal the Future



Over a decade ago, I interviewed former Jehovah’s Witness elder Roberto di Stefano. At the time, he had told me about a disturbing encounter that came about years after 1974, when he had delivered a congregation talk stressing to his congregants how 1975 would finally bring Armageddon.

Years later, a member approached him and described how frightened she had been. The message made her feel as though she had to sell her possessions and preach full time. She had given up so much in order to prepare for what she thought was the end.

Roberto barely remembered the talk until he found the religious bulletin and his handwritten notes. She was right. Yet when 1975 passed without Armageddon, his faith was unshaken. Perhaps, he reasoned, God was allowing more time to preach.

When we observe the results of apocalyptic belief, this is one of the core results that we see—in that a predicted world-ending event need not even arrive for the prophecy to reshape and upend someone’s entire life.

Urgency Creates Obedience

This result is not at all surprising. If we are told, in no uncertain terms, that the world is ending, planning for next year or the far-away future can feel pointless. Why would anybody pursue an education, save their money, or do anything other than preach to others if none of it will even matter?

In 1974, the Watch Tower Society (Jehovah’s Witnesses) had commended members selling homes and property in lieu of preaching full time. This powerful message from leadership influenced thousands of Witnesses on which life decisions to make, and which choices were praised. Members started to make irreversible decisions, such as spending their retirement savings, believing that salvation depended on acting urgently.

Since one authority claimed exclusive knowledge of the danger, the predictions had become particularly controlling. This environment ultimately led to what I call phobia indoctrination, where the ultimate authority of the group became refuge from impending catastrophe.

In such situations doubt is viewed as spiritual weakness. This continues through to today, when, for example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic was interpreted by many high-control religious groups as further proof the world was near its end.

Bringing About the End

In Destroying the World to Save It, psychiatrist Robert Jay Lifton explored an extreme example of this mindset when he studied Aum Shinrikyo, whose members, in 1995, perpetrated the Tokyo chemical gas subway attack, killing and injuring passengers.

The leader, Shoko Asahara, who claimed to be Jesus and Buddha, had taught members that such actions of destruction were part of a larger “purification.” Followers were told to denounce their former lives and make decisions solely based on the guru’s authority.

Lifton, examining this event, identified certain mechanisms of what he termed “ideological totalism.” In Aum, he noted that “milieu control” restricted members’ outside perspectives while “doctrine over person” created an environment where official teachings were more important than any individual’s life.

Lifton also identified the concept of “dispensing of existence,” which he described as the dividing of a population into those who deserve salvation, and those who are undeserving. Using the example of Aum’s gas attack, Asahara used the idea of “purification” to tell followers that killing would save victims by allowing them to be reborn.

The actual attack pushed the group from predicting a disaster into what Lifton termed “action prophecy,” where members actually moved to make the prophecy real, creating a supposed path to ultimate salvation. Such violence represents an extreme outcome, a promised future, and was the result of teachings that made human sacrifice appear virtuous and justifiable.

Language of Inevitability

Today, apocalyptic language is not confined to religion. Artificial intelligence is alternately portrayed as humanity’s inevitable destroyer or its inevitable successor.

Within the sphere of AI discussion today, there exist proponents of what researchers call effective accelerationism—or the practice of emphasizing the benefits of AI while purposefully downplaying the risks. More radical accelerationists welcome the eventual replacement of humanity by AI machines, teaching the coming of a “second race” which will explore the cosmos.

The way that religious groups position Armageddon and the way that AI accelerationists predict humanity’s demise are not identical, but such rhetoric rhymes in the way that it treats humanity’s fate as already set in stone. This can leave ordinary people feeling increasingly powerless as we may start to think, “Why bother investing in the future or demanding accountability if the future is decided?”

This resignation can start to infect our desire to protect the planet. For example, if the AI catastrophe is unavoidable, why bother reducing greenhouse gas emissions or worrying about the oceans?

Reclaiming Autonomy in the Future

For those who were raised in an environment that encouraged such inevitability, such as doomsday cults, predictions of AI demise can revive old fears. Such fears have indeed infected many, even those without a developmental history of being raised in a cult. And so, what can we do, when these predictions are all around us?

First, reclaiming a sense of agency starts with defining what is potential versus what is inevitable, and what is based in fear versus what can be tangibly acted on. Combating feelings of panic or helplessness requires shifting our attention to what is still ours to influence.

We can be aware of how doomsday predictions are affecting our decision making when we plan for the future and decide to pursue higher learning, maintain our health, vote, and advocate for regulation.

Living in a world where doomsday predictions create a sense of fear and uncertainty is a reality, however treating that uncertainty as a gift is a valuable interpretation. Certainty in the future means that it is a sure thing and can create a false sense of security—but uncertainty reestablishes choice and self-efficacy and removes the belief that we must postpone living for a prophecy.

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