The first snow of the season could come a little late to parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast this year.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a new outlook on Thursday, Oct. 29, favoring warmer-than-normal temperatures across the East from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8. Minneapolis, Buffalo, and Syracuse usually see their first measurable snow during that stretch, and Cleveland’s typical date is Nov. 10.
Through Oct. 28, none of the 12 northern cities below had recorded measurable snow this season, according to data from NOAA’s Regional Climate Centers.
Warm Start to November
In its 6-10 day outlook, the Climate Prediction Center said the chances of above-normal temperatures top 70% “from the Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast northwestward to the Great Lakes.” Above-normal temperatures are also favored across most of the rest of the northern U.S.
Earlier in the week, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Men’s Journal that parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes could turn much colder starting around Thursday, Nov. 5. The CPC’s newer outlook covers Nov. 4 to Nov. 8 as a whole, and it still favors above-normal temperatures for the region.
Warmer weather doesn’t rule out snow. But the warm stretch lines up with the week several of these cities usually get their first flakes.
When the First Snow Usually Arrives
The dates below are the median dates of the first measurable snowfall, at least 0.1 inch, over the 30 winters from 1991-92 to 2020-21. In half of those winters, the first snow came before the date, and in the other half it came after. The numbers come from daily records at each city’s official weather station, pulled from NOAA’s Applied Climate Information System.
- Minneapolis: Nov. 7
- Buffalo: Nov. 8
- Syracuse: Nov. 8
- Cleveland: Nov. 10
- Milwaukee: Nov. 13
- Albany: Nov. 14
- Pittsburgh: Nov. 14
- Chicago: Nov. 17
- Detroit: Nov. 20
- Boston: Dec. 2
- New York City (Central Park): Dec. 10
- Philadelphia: Dec. 18
The National Weather Service in Chicago lists Nov. 18 as the normal date for the first measurable snow at O’Hare.
Back in September, Direct Weather released a regional map of when the first snow could arrive across the country.
Earliest and Latest
Some years, the first snow shows up well ahead of schedule. Cleveland got its first measurable snow on Oct. 2 in 2003, and Buffalo’s came on Oct. 6 in 1991. Chicago’s earliest on record is Oct. 12, 2006, per the NWS.
In other years, it takes much longer. Chicago’s first measurable snow didn’t come until Dec. 28 in 2021, the latest on record there, according to the NWS. In the 1999-2000 winter, Boston and New York City both waited until January.
Last Year’s First Snow
Last fall, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo all recorded their first measurable snow on the same day, Nov. 9, 2025. Syracuse and Albany followed on Nov. 10.
Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia all had to wait until Dec. 14.