Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock price was down 3% at press time despite analysts betting that the company will report a surge in revenue and Earnings per Share (EPS) in its Q3 2026 earnings release today, October 29.
Today’s drop comes after a green day for the shares on October 28 after jumping by 2.66% to close trading at a three-day high of $145.
Post-earnings, Bitcoin (BTC) price performance and macro factors like the upcoming MSCI rebalancing, US midterm elections, and geopolitical risks will impact Strategy share price movements.
Strategy Shareholders Await Q3 Earnings
Strategy will release its Q3 2026 earnings after the close of financial markets today. Zacks consensus estimates that the company will report an EPS of $21.50, which is a huge leap from the EPS loss of $24.45 reported in Q2 2025.
Revenue is also expected to come in higher than the $122.4 million that was reported in the previous quarter.
59% of traders on Polymarket expect Strategy will beat these bullish expectations, especially with the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings going back above water. Data from Strategy Tracker shows an unrealized profit of $3.64 billion on the company’s stash of 848,117 BTC.
Bitcoin Price Weakness Could Push MSTR Stock Lower
As Bitcoin price struggles near $80,000 analysts are warning of a potential drop in MSTR stock price post-earnings even as the company approves a daily dividend payout proposal that could help generate more capital to fund BTC purchases.
Analyst Darkfost warns that even if Strategy is above its Bitcoin cost basis, the purchases made since 2025 remain underwater.
“Taking all purchases since 2025 together with this summer’s sales at the lows, the cost basis is still above the current price, at an estimated $90 600,” the analyst said.
Another analyst on X adds that MSTR stock price will likely be in trouble if the price of Bitcoin falls below $74,000.
At press time, BTC price traded at $80,014 with an intraday loss of 0.78%. A recent CoinGape Bitcoin price analysis noted that analysts are warning of a steeper crash if the king coin records a daily close below $79,000. Such a drop will be bearish for MSTR stock price after today’s earnings release.
MSCI Rebalancing, Elections and Geopolitical Risks Will Weigh on Shares Post Earnings
Even with a surge in revenue and EPS, Strategy shares are facing a volatile week ahead with the upcoming midterm elections on November 3. During the previous midterm election in 2022, MSTR stock price dropped by 30% to close the month at $19, down from the opening price of $27.
Eight days after the election day, MSCI will be rebalancing its index and speculation is rife of a potential MSTR stock exclusion after a recent proposal passed, targeting digital asset treasury companies.
JPMorgan had warned the exclusion could cause $2.8 billion in selling pressure, and if this occurs, MSTR stock price will most likely edge lower.
Lastly, President Trump has warned that US strikes on Iran will resume after midterm elections, which is another factor that could weigh on MSTR stock price even if the earnings results today surpass expectations.
MSTR Stock Price Eyes Key Resistance Level Amid Earnings Release
MSTR stock price could move to the resistance at the 61.85 Fib of $147 if the earnings release today meets expectations and the company’s revenue and EPS jump.
A close above the 61.8% Fib culd push MSTR stock to the next obstacle at 200-day EMA at $152, whose crossover could determine whether the shares can reach $170.
However, an earnings miss might push MSTR stock price lower to the 100-day EMA of $136. Breaking this support could trigger a steep downtrend, especially with the upcoming MSCI rebalancing and mid-term elections.
The RSI on the daily chart is at 46, which suggests that the momentum is favoring bears, and this supports a bearish outlook for MSTR stock price.
As for the long-term outlook post the Q3 earnings release, the weekly chart places crucial support at $137, where closing below this price could accelerate the downtrend.
The weekly chart also shows a CMF reading of -0.09, which further supports that the selling pressure remains high as Strategy releases its Q3 earnings results.
The widening Bollinger band also suggest that the volatility of the shares is rising as the stock cools off following the recent gains from $82 to $171.
