As El Niño conditions are set to shape the 2026-2027 winter season, many Americans don’t know what to expect in their region. After all, the El Niño phenomenon can create dangerous weather, including extreme droughts, severe floods, and more. Now, a newly released map shows the U.S. states where a major meteorologist expects a “particularly stormy winter.”
Which U.S. States Could Face a Stormier 2026-2027 Winter?
Ben Noll is a meteorologist who covers “weather, climate, and meteorological data visualization” for the Washington Post. On October 26, 2026, Noll shared a new winter weather map on X, explaining that it showed where “chances for a particularly stormy winter are notably higher than normal.” The map applied to December 2026 to February 2027. He also included a caption that noted there are “densely populated” areas on the East Coast and West Coast that could see a very stormy winter.
Depending on the shade of pink shown on the map, areas have between a 10% and 90% chance of seeing “extremely wet conditions” during the 2026-2027 winter. The darker the shade, the higher the probability. Parts of Oregon, California, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida all have between a 70% and 90% chance of extreme precipitation this winter. Additionally, all or parts of Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington D.C., West Virginia, and different parts of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and California have a 50% to 70% chance.
The map showed the following areas in pink, meaning they could see a very wet winter:
- All of Florida, Washington D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts.
- Almost all of California, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
- Most of New Mexico, Georgia, Kansas, Utah, and North Dakota.
- Parts of Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota.
It is important to note that the map Noll shared does not differentiate between where snow or rain is likely to fall this winter. Instead, it only signifies where there will likely be increased precipitation that Noll predicts could cause a very stormy winter.
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